The U.S. Capitol building in Washington on June 25, 2025.
The White House has suggested that increases in economic growth from the tax cuts will offset any increases to the deficit from a reduction in tax revenue.
The latest version of the budget bill that the Senate is considering will add trillions to the national debt, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said in an analysis posted on June 29.
The CBO estimates that the Senate version of the Republican-led One Big Beautiful Bill Act will increase the deficit by almost $3.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034.
This is a nearly $1 trillion increase from the House-passed version of the bill, which the CBO had initially estimated would add $2.4 trillion to the national debt by 2034, before raising that projection to $2.8 trillion just two weeks later.
The increased estimate reflects some of the changes to the bill as Senate Republicans look to pass the legislation—a critical effort to advance President Donald Trump’s agenda—ahead of his July 4 deadline.
In addition to the increase in the impacts on the national debt, CBO’s latest analysis found that 11.8 million more Americans would lose their medical insurance by 2034 if the bill becomes law. This is an increase from the 10.9 million who were projected to lose their health coverage in the House-passed version of the bill.
White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson criticized the CBO’s new report in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times.
“Democrats and the media love to tout the CBO’s historically incorrect scoring—look no further than their doomcasting of President Trump’s tax cuts during his first term, which helped usher in the first decline in wealth inequality in decades,” she said. “Last week’s [Council of Economic Advisors] report made clear that The One, Big, Beautiful Bill will reduce the federal deficit by more than $2 trillion over the next decade, thanks to tax-cut driven economic growth.”
Jackson did not comment on the projected impact on millions of Americans’ health insurance coverage.
When the CBO released its previous analysis on the House-passed version of the bill, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said that the CBO provides incomplete information.
“Reporting that takes CBO scoring about the One Big Beautiful Bill at face value should also take the CBO’s tariff revenue estimate of $2.8 trillion at face value, which together cancel out to no change to the deficit,” Desai told The Epoch Times.
However, the CBO is not the only group raising alarm about the potential negative fiscal impacts from Trump’s sweeping tax cut legislation.
On June 24, the Tax Foundation estimated that the Senate version of the bill would decrease tax revenue by $4.7 trillion between 2025 and 2034, with gross domestic product expected to increase by 1.1 percent. That means the economic growth touted by the White House would only pay for roughly 19 percent of the bill’s major tax cuts.
The Tax Foundation said it would publish updates on impacts to the federal deficit once more information becomes available to the CBO. An estimate on May 23 for the House-passed version of the bill projected the deficit would increase by $2.6 trillion.
That same day, the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model forecast that the House version of the reconciliation bill would raise deficits by $2.8 trillion.
Yale’s Budget Lab estimates that the same version of the bill would add $10.8 trillion to the national debt over a 30-year window.
“If the tax provisions become permanent, with no additional tariff revenue, the debt-to-GDP ratio would hit approximately 191 percent in 2055. The only countries that currently have a higher debt-to-GDP ratio are Japan and Sudan,” the Budget Lab said in its May 30 update.
In a June 26 update, Yale’s Budget Lab projected the Senate version of the bill would add $4.1 trillion to the national debt by 2034, and $19.4 trillion by 2055.
The Budget Lab said that even if there is no increase in interest rates due to the bill, between 2045 and 2055, the cost of additional interest is more than 87 percent of the direct cost of the legislation as it’s written. This increases to 90 percent if the temporary tax provisions become permanent.
